Hello, my name Alina Semerhei-Chumachenko. This is combined package in English: (1) ready-to-run workshop script, (2) AI/ChatGPT prompts tailored to this scenario, and (4) an assessment package with answer key + rubric, all aligned to the Utrecht King’s Day convective nowcasting case. Generated by GPT 5.0
1) Ready-to-run Workshop Script (60–90 min)
Session title - Radar-Based Nowcasting for High-Impact Outdoor Events: Utrecht, 27 April (14:00 LT)
Audience - Operational convective forecasters (advanced degrees, 5+ years experience).
Scenario framing (2–3 min)
Instructor says:
“Today you’re nowcasting for multiple outdoor festivals across Utrecht Province at 14:00 on April 27th. A convective system is expected in a high-instability environment. Your job is to decide if/when to issue an orange thunderstorm warning, and to support time-critical safety decisions for crowded venues. You will work with radar products under realistic uncertainty.”
Key constraints to remind learners:
Crowds + outdoor concerts → low tolerance for surprise hazards.
Radar shows potential, not guaranteed surface verification.
Track may appear to miss Utrecht, yet growth/propagation could still impact the province.
Activity 1 (CCAF) — “First Look” Hazard Diagnosis (15–20 min)
Context (show products at T0 ~14:00):
Base reflectivity (0.5°)
Composite reflectivity
Echo Tops (7 dBZ contour height)
Optional: VIL/MESH if provided in the scenario pack
Challenge:
“Based on the current radar suite, identify the convective mode and rank hazards (hail, wind, heavy rain/flash flooding, lightning) for Utrecht over the next 30–60 minutes. Decide whether you would issue a warning now or wait one scan.”
Feedback (Instructor, 3–5 min): Highlight the hail logic: high echo tops above freezing and into −10 to −30 °C growth zone materially increase hail likelihood, especially when paired with intensifying Z cores.
Note early clues for heavy rain risk (core size, slow motion), but save deeper flood reasoning for Activity 2.
Confirm that this scenario ultimately supports an orange warning due to combined hazard potential and high societal exposure.